Applying fuzzy logic cognitive modeling to integrate socio-ecological knowledge for carnivore conflict management☆

Human-carnivore conflict (HCC) is a growing global problem. A fundamental challenge is that HCC almost universally involves human-human conflict. Residents affected by HCC may also lack power and money to implement solutions, while conservation practitioners with power to guide solutions prioritize species conservation. Given the need to holistically evaluate HCC, we used a social-ecological systems (SES) approach that incorporated theoretical frameworks to draw out the hidden aspects of HCC. Specifically, we used a participatory fuzzy logic cognitive modeling approach to create mental models as a SES tool to study HCC. The theoretical lens of systems thinking encompassing conflict theory and power sharing were used to test hypotheses and to compare models between conservation experts and residents. We used human-tiger conflict (HTC) in India as a model system given the country's success at tiger conservation and the complex human dimensions involved. We conducted focused group discussions in 16 villages around Pilibhit Tiger Reserve, and with 10 experts, to create 26 mental models. We identified 445 qualitative variables that were aggregated across 6 themes. The mean complexity scores were similar between residents and experts, demonstrating similarities in understanding the complexity of HTCs for both groups. Based on conflict theory, important factors identified by residents included fencing, early warning systems, and awareness measures. In contrast, important factors identified by experts were pollution, climate change, and habitat quality. Based on power asymmetry, these two groups identified different drivers and mitigation solutions, with residents prioritizing fuelwood collection and fencing, while experts prioritized habitat quality and prey base availability. These results are valuable for identifying the unaddressed needs of actors involved. Our findings can aid in policy to promote local support of conservation initiatives for wild species conservation by integrating local ecological knowledge and fulfilling the needs of the local people.