The diagnosis of mucormycosis by PCR in patients at risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to examine the performance of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays for diagnosing mucormycosis. Methods A standardised search was conducted from conception to December 3rd 2024 using PubMed, Embase, Global Health, and Cochrane library. Original studies that used PCR-based methods on any human specimen to diagnose mucormycosis were analysed for eligibility. Using a bivariate meta-analysis, the diagnostic performance of PCR was examined against the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer-Mycoses Study Group Education and Research Consortium 2020 (EORTC-MSGERC) definitions of proven and probable invasive mould disease, which was modified to include all patients at risk of mucormycosis. The study protocol was registered on the PROSPERO database (CRD42023478667). Findings Of 4855 articles, a total of 30 met inclusion criteria, including 5920 PCR reactions on 5147 non-duplicate specimens from 819 cases of proven/probable mucormycosis and 4266 patients who did not meet the EORTCMSGERC 2020 criteria. According to specimen type, sensitivity of PCR varied (p < 0.001) whereas specificity was similar (p = 0.662). Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid offered the highest sensitivity of 97.5% (95% CI 83.7-99.7%), specificity of 95.8% (95% CI 89.6-98.4%), positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 23.5, and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.03. Tissue provided sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 78.9-91.5%), specificity of 90.6% (95% CI 78.1-96.3%), LR+ of 9.2, and LR- of 0.15. Blood provided reduced sensitivity of 81.6% (95% CI 70.1-89.4%), specificity of 95.5% (95% CI 87.4-98.5%), DOR of 95, LR+ of 18.3, and LR- of 0.19. Formalin-fixed paraffin- embedded specimens yielded the lowest sensitivity of 73.0% (95% CI 61.0-82.3%), highest specificity of 96.4% (CI 95% 87.5-99.0%), LR+ of 20.2, and LR- of 0.28. The covariates best explaining heterogeneity of the overall analysis were specimen type, study design (cohort versus case-control) and disease prevalence while patient population (COVID-19 versus other) and PCR (conventional versus quantitative) had less impact on heterogeneity. Interpretation This meta-analysis confirms the high performance of PCR for diagnosing mucormycosis and supports the instatement of PCR detection of free-DNA in blood, BALF and tissue into future updated definitions and diagnostic guidelines for mucormycosis. Copyright Crown Copyright (c) 2025 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).