Based on the MaxEnt model the analysis of influencing factors and simulation of potential risk areas of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) in China

Exposure to infected animals and their contaminated environments may be the primary cause of human infection with the H7N9 avian influenza virus. However, the transmission characteristics and specific role of various influencing factors in the spread of the epidemic are not clearly understood. Therefore, it is of great significance for scientific research and practical application to explore the influencing factors related to the epidemic. Based on the data of relevant influencing factors and case sample points, this study used the MaxEnt model to test the correlation between human infection with H7N9 avian influenza and influencing factors in China from 2013 to 2017, and scientifically simulated and evaluated the potential risk areas of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza in China. The simulation results show that the epidemic risk is increasing year by year, and the eastern and southeastern coasts have always been high-risk areas. After verification, the model simulation results are generally consistent with the actual outbreak of the epidemic. Population density was the main influencing factor of the epidemic, and the secondary influencing factors included vegetation coverage, precipitation, altitude, poultry slaughter, production value, and temperature. The study revealed the spatial distribution and diffusion rules of the H7N9 epidemic and clarified the key influencing factors. In the future, more variables need to be included to improve the model and provide more accurate support for prevention and control strategies.