Robust planning of a European Electricity System under climate uncertainty

Anthropological climate change will lead to significant changes in climate in the coming years. Many components of an energy system depend on climate variables. Yet, projections of future climate are subject to large uncertainties. Hence, in this work a European electricity system is optimized using different climate projections. In addition to single optimizations for the different projections, robust optimizations including all projections are performed. The comparison of the results shows that the different climate projections have significant influence on the electricity system, e.g. the total costs differ by 23.7% between the cheapest and most expensive projection. When planning a robust system including all climate projections, the costs rise by 2.8% compared to the most expensive single projection, avoiding the loss of load for costs of 868 (sic)/MWh. 706 GW of investment decisions are taken regardless of the choice of climate projection and can hence be classified as no-regret investments.