PLUS MODEL BASED LAND USE CHANGE ANALYSIS AND MULTI-SCENARIO SIMULATION FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE YELLOW RIVER HUANGFUCHUAN BASIN

Climate change and human activity have led to substantial ecological degradation in the Yellow River Basin, China. As a case study, the aim of this study was to analyze and simulate current land-use status in the Huangfuchuan Basin from 1980 to 2020 and forecast multiple land-use scenarios in 2030 based on the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results showed that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the average proportion of grassland, arable land, construction land, forest land, water area, and unused land in the total basin area was 66.16%, 21.17%, 0.97%, 4.96%, 2.08%, and 4.65%, respectively. Grassland and arable land remained as the primary land-use type, whereas construction land area showed continuous increase. (2) Annual precipitation and distance from the railway contributed the most to forest land expansion, whereas (in order) precipitation, altitude, and distance most strongly influenced water bodies and residential land. (3) The simulation forecast under the scenario of farmland protection showed that the cultivated land area will increase to 673.8 km 2 by 2030 In turn, the unused land area will increase by 31.8 km(2) but the grassland area will decrease by 49.4 km(2) . In the ecological protection scenario, the area of arable land and forest land will increase, whereas that of grassland and water area will decrease by 6.9 and 0.72 km(2), respectively.