Decarbonizing Egypt's energy sector: pathways for an accelerated energy transition

PurposeThis study aims to identify decarbonization pathways and energy mix scenarios of least global warming potential that address Egypt's growing energy demand, while transitioning away from reliance on fossil fuel towards a more sustainable energy landscape.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilized an integrated modelling approach, namely the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system, to simulate Egypt's energy demand and supply from 2010 to 2050. Four alternative scenarios were examined. The reference scenario, RS1, replicates the energy demand and supply change patterns of the model's baseline until 2050. The reference scenario, RS2, considers 5% yearly growth in energy demand alongside integrating nuclear technology into the generation mix. In addition to two renewables-promotion scenarios, RE1 and RE2, wherein renewables contribute 42 and 75% to the energy mix by 2030 and 2050, respectively.FindingsResults revealed that greenhouse gas emissions are expected to peak in RS1 in 2050. Yet, RE2 demonstrates the lowest global warming potential. Energy generation costs are anticipated to be the highest in RS2 by 2050 and in RE2 between 2022 and 2030, reaching its lowermost point in RE2 by 2050. Moreover, natural gas is anticipated to contribute the largest share of energy generated in RS1 but the smallest share in RE2, wherein wind energy dominates energy production by 2050. Among all other scenarios, RE2 had the greatest potential to enable the achievement of net zero emissions in the long term.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings of this research have significant implications as they provide valuable data-driven insights into identifying mitigation scenarios that align best with Egypt's economic development plans while also promoting sustainable energy planning. Moreover, the results hold important implications for energy policymaking in Egypt. Policymakers can utilize these insights to prioritize and channel investments towards renewable energy sources, energy efficiency measures and the adoption of clean technologies.Originality/valueThis study addresses a gap in the existing literature on Egypt's energy landscape by introducing an integrated analysis that combines both energy demand and supply. Previous studies focused solely on demand or supply in isolation, overlooking the interconnected nature of these factors and the specific determinants of Egypt's energy demand profile. Using a modelling approach, this study is the first in Egypt to comprehensively consider both aspects. By identifying key factors influencing Egypt's energy demand until 2050, it provides valuable insights into the future energy landscape, evaluates economic costs, examines potential environmental impacts and presents empirical evidence on energy generation scenarios aligned with future demand and climatic factors.