A fractional order SIR model describing hesitancy to the COVID-19 vaccination

被引：3

作者：

Caetano, Constantino ^{[1
]}

Morgado, Luisa ^{[2
]}

Lima, Pedro ^{[3
]}

Hens, Niel ^{[4
,5
]}

Nunes, Baltazar ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Inst Nacl Saude Doutor Ricardo Jorge, Dept Epidemiol, P-1600609 Lisbon, Portugal

[2] Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro UTAD, Dept Math, P-5000801 Vila Real, Portugal

[3] Inst Super Tecn, Dept Math, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal

[4] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Data Sci Inst, Hasselt, Belgium

[5] Univ Antwerp, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modelling Infect Dis, Antwerp, Belgium

[6] Univ NOVA Lisboa, Publ Hlth Res Ctr, NOVA Natl Sch Publ Hlth, Lisbon, Portugal

来源：

APPLIED NUMERICAL MATHEMATICS | 2025年 / 207卷

关键词：

Fractional derivatives; SIR model; Vaccine hesitancy; COVID-19; TRANSMISSION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.apnum.2024.10.001

中图分类号：

O29 [应用数学];

学科分类号：

070104 ;

摘要：

This study introduces a SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model using fractional derivatives to assess the population's hesitancy to the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Portugal. Leveraging the framework developed by Angstmann [1], our approach incorporates fractional derivatives to best describe the nuanced dynamics of the vaccination process. We begin by examining the qualitative properties of the proposed model. To substantiate the inclusion of fractional derivatives, empirical data along with statistical criteria are applied. Numerical simulations are performed to compare both integer and fractional order models. An epidemiological interpretation for the fractional order of the model is provided, in the context of a vaccination campaign.

引用

页码：608 / 620

页数：13