Can strategic protected area expansion solve the insufficient representation of biodiversity in protected area networks? A case study from South Africa

Strategic protected area expansion has been proposed as a solution to the inequitable representation of biodiversity in existing protected area networks, but its effectiveness remains untested. South Africa implemented a National Protected Area Expansion Strategy (NPAES) in 2008, which provided the opportunity to examine the role that strategic decision-making played in guiding protected area expansion towards biodiversity priority areas over the following 12 years. The study evaluated three outcomes as evidence for strategic expansion: alignment of annual protected area expansion with NPAES goals, probability of expansion in priority versus nonpriority areas, and shifts in expansion drivers from land availability to biodiversity priorities. While post-NPAES expansion generally aligned with its goals, no evidence could be found that this result was due to strategic decision-making. Results reinforce concerns that in under-resourced conservation strategies, ambitious targets can undermine the achievement of strategic objectives. Strategies containing a mix of conservation interventions complementary to the constraints on strategic protected area expansion will support better outcomes for biodiversity.