Impacts on study design when implementing digital measures in Parkinson's disease-modifying therapy trials

Introduction Parkinson's Disease affects over 8.5 million people and there are currently no medications approved to treat underlying disease. Clinical trials for disease modifying therapies (DMT) are hampered by a lack of sufficiently sensitive measures to detect treatment effect. Reliable digital assessments of motor function allow for frequent at-home measurements that may be able to sensitively detect disease progression. Methods Here, we estimate the test-retest reliability of a suite of at-home motor measures derived from raw triaxial accelerometry data collected from 44 participants (21 with confirmed PD) and use the estimates to simulate digital measures in DMT trials. We consider three schedules of assessments and fit linear mixed models to the simulated data to determine whether a treatment effect can be detected. Results We find at-home measures vary in reliability; many have ICCs as high as or higher than MDS-UPDRS part III total score. Compared with quarterly in-clinic assessments, frequent at-home measures reduce the sample size needed to detect a 30% reduction in disease progression from over 300 per study arm to 150 or less than 100 for bursts and evenly spaced at-home assessments, respectively. The results regarding superiority of at-home assessments for detecting change over time are robust to relaxing assumptions regarding the responsiveness to disease progression and variability in progression rates. Discussion Overall, at-home measures have a favorable reliability profile for sensitive detection of treatment effects in DMT trials. Future work is needed to better understand the causes of variability in PD progression and identify the most appropriate statistical methods for effect detection.