Impact of urbanization on low-carbon development: an empirical study in Yangtze River Delta

Exploring the impact of urbanization on low-carbon development is of great significance for achieving dual carbon goals and promoting regional sustainable development. This study utilizes carbon performance as an indicator of low-carbon development, employing elasticity index method, geographically and temporally weighted regression model, and geo-detector techniques to investigate the effects and mechanisms of urbanization on low-carbon development. The research focuses on 41 cities within China's Yangtze Delta region. The results reveal that (1) both urbanization levels and carbon performance in the Yangtze Delta region are generally high, with significant spatial heterogeneity. (2) The relationship between carbon performance and urbanization exhibits an "S" shaped evolutionary trend, where minor changes in urbanization in highly urbanized areas result in substantial variations in carbon performance. (3) Industrial and population urbanization positively affect carbon performance, while land urbanization has a negative impact. The influence of urbanization on carbon performance is significant and spatially heterogeneous, with industrial urbanization playing a decisive role. Differentiated policies and measures tailored to the diverse resource endowments of cities should be implemented to promote urbanization indicators.