Reliability prediction of multi-level power supply system based on Failure Precursor Parameters☆

Complex electronic systems exhibit multi-level characteristics, making it challenging to simulate the system performance states accurately using existing reliability modeling methods. This paper proposes a multi-level reliability prediction model that extracts Failure Precursor Parameters (FPPs) as model inputs. First, a circuitlevel multi-stress simulation model is constructed. Second, the degradation and failure information is input, and system FPPs are identified through sensitivity and correlation analysis. Finally, a dynamic system model is constructed to calculate the reliability of the system's comprehensive evaluation, with FPPs as inputs. A case study on a specific power supply system demonstrates the model's improved ability to simulate the system's operational state while maintaining prediction accuracy. Additionally, the paper provides a method combining the physics of failure models and system-level reliability prediction, and various research methods are compared.