Deciphering the Risk of Area-Wide Coordinated Urban Regeneration in Chinese Small Cities from the Project Portfolio Perspective: A Case Study of Yancheng

Area-wide coordinated urban regeneration is a strategic approach to upgrading urban functions, enhancing the allocation efficiency of land resources, and enhancing the overall urban environment from a project portfolio perspective. However, implementing area-wide coordinated urban regeneration faces significant challenges, including project delays, terminations, and difficulties in achieving investment returns. These challenges are particularly acute in smaller Chinese cities. While most previous research has paid attention to large Chinese cities, they usually neglect the risks associated with urban regeneration from an area-wide project portfolio perspective. To address this gap, this research develops a comprehensive list of risk indicators for area-side coordinated urban regeneration based on project portfolio management theory. Stakeholder opinions on the likelihood and impact of these risk indicators were collected by a questionnaire survey. A risk evaluation method, integrating the C-OWA operator and grey cluster analysis, was proposed to assess these risks. Risk management and control strategies were then proposed based on different risk levels. A case study of the coordinated urban regeneration of Yancheng's Chaoyang area was conducted to evaluate comprehensive risk levels and provide tailored recommendations for risk control. This study offers practical guidance for urban planners and policymakers to improve decision-making in small cities and contributes new insights into risk management in the field of urban development.