When Elections Wait: A Cross-National Analysis of Election Postponement During the COVID-19 Pandemic

During the first 2 years of the coronavirus pandemic, over 150 countries had scheduled elections, but approximately half of them had to be postponed due to the pandemic. Why were some elections postponed while others were not? Despite its impact on the election calendar and democratic accountability, election postponement has received surprisingly little scholarly attention. In this study, I investigate the conditions under which elections are more likely to be delayed. Utilizing a comprehensive cross-national dataset encompassing election schedules worldwide, COVID-19-related factors, and other societal and institutional characteristics, I provide the first systematic examination of election postponement during the first 2 years of the pandemic. The empirical analysis reveals that national elections are less likely to be postponed compared to second-order elections such as subnational and special elections. Furthermore, it demonstrates that the momentum of the pandemic plays a significant role, and effective pandemic management and robust healthcare infrastructures decrease the likelihood of election postponement. On the other hand, institutional constraints have little impact. By shedding light on the factors driving election postponement, this study enhances our understanding of how crises can shape democratic processes.