Predicting the Risk of Loneliness in Children and Adolescents: A Machine Learning Study

Background: Loneliness is increasingly emerging as a significant public health problem in children and adolescents. Predicting loneliness and finding its risk factors in children and adolescents is lacking and necessary, and would greatly help determine intervention actions. Objective: This study aimed to find appropriate machine learning techniques to predict loneliness and its associated risk factors among schoolchildren. Methods: The data were collected from an ongoing prospective puberty cohort that was established in Chongqing, Southwest China. This study used 822 subjects (46.84% boys, age range: 11-16) followed in 2019. Five models, (a) random forest, (b) extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), (c) logistic regression, (d) neural network, and (e) support vector machine were applied to predict loneliness. A total of 39 indicators were collected and 28 predictors were finally included for prediction after data pre-processing, including demographic, parental relationship, mental health, pubertal development, behaviors, and environmental factors. Model performance was determined by accuracy and AUC. Additionally, random forest and XGBoost were applied to identify the important factors. The XGBoost algorithm with SHAP was also used to interpret the results of our ML model. Results: All machine learning performed with favorable accuracy. Compared to random forest (AUC: 0.87 (95%CI: 0.80, 0.93)), logistic regression (AUC: 0.80 (95%CI: 0.70, 0.89)), neural network (AUC: 0.80 (95%CI: 0.71, 0.89)), and support vector machine (AUC: 0.79 (95%CI: 0.79, 0.89)), XGBoost algorithm had the highest AUC values 0.87 (95%CI: 0.80, 0.93) in the test set, although the difference was not significant between models. Peer communication, index of general affect, peer alienation, and internet addiction were the top four significant factors of loneliness in children and adolescents. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that machine learning has considerable potential to predict loneliness in children. This may be valuable for the early identification and intervention of loneliness.