Indices to Identify Historical and Future Periods of Drought for the Maize Crop (Zea mays L.) in Central Mexico

Agricultural drought is a condition that threatens natural ecosystems, water security, and food security. The timely identification of an agricultural drought event is essential to mitigating its effects. However, achieving a reliable and accurate assessment is challenging due to the interannual variability of precipitation in a region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify the months with drought during the agricultural cycle of the maize crop (Zea mays L.) in the Atlacomulco Rural Development District (ARDD) as a study area using the SPI and SPEI indices and their impact on each phenological stage. The results show that when analyzing the historical period (1985-2017), the ARDD is a region prone to agricultural droughts with a duration of one month. The stages of grain filling and ripening were the most vulnerable, since SPI and SPEI-1 quantify that 25% and 31% of the total months with drought occur during those stages, respectively. Towards the 2041-2080 horizon, the MCG ACCESS-ESM1-5 with the SSP2-4.5 scenario identified an occurrence of dry periods with 17% and 20% by SPI and SPEI, respectively, while for SSP5-8.5, 17% and 22% of the total number of periods corresponded to dry months with SPI and SPEI, respectively. Greater recurrence will be observed in the future, specifically after the year 2061, meaning an increase in the frequency of agricultural drought events in the region, causing difficult and erratic productive conditions for each agricultural cycle and threatening sustainable development. Therefore, it is necessary to take action to mitigate the effects of climate change in this sector.