Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Operational Energy and Thermal Comfort in the Housing Stock of Jordan

The intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected a significant increase in temperature by 2050. In regions characterized by harsh summer climates, such as Jordan, this would have negative effects on energy and thermal performance in the existing housing stock. This study aims to generate a predictive model that assesses the impact of future climate change on both operational energy (OE) use and thermal comfort expected in Jordan's housing stock by 2050. To do so, a thermal simulation of a Jordanian housing stock model using a future weather file is used. Next, the impact of changing climate conditions on the thermal comfort (TC) of residents is investigated. A Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) thermal sensation scale from ASHRAE 55 based on Fanger Comfort Model, and Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied (PPD) are utilized to assess the level of comfort in the selected dwellings with mechanical energy systems. The CIBSE TM59 approach is used to predict the overheating risk in naturally ventilated dwellings. In the context of 2050 data analysis, discomfort hours increase in naturally ventilated archetypes, while the mechanically ventilated and air conditioned archetype experiences a notable rise in PMV (3.8) and PPD (89%) during summer., While total operational energy show a noticeable decline across the entire stock, ranging from 18% to 33%, future climate conditions may lead to increased energy consumption for cooling in housing stock if mechanical cooling is used. This study will contribute to the local discourse on sustainable urban development in the face of climate change.