Assessing the potential economic impacts of spotted lanternfly (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) infestations on grape production in New York State

Lycorma delicatula, known as the spotted lanternfly, an insect native to Asia, feeds on a broad range of plant species in the United States, including tree of heaven, black walnut, silver and red maple, and grapes. As of early 2024, grape growers in New York State have not reported spotted lanternfly-related issues. In contrast, growers in Pennsylvania experienced significant losses during the early years of infestation, with some vineyards replanting due to vine death caused by spotted lanternfly. Over time, Pennsylvania growers developed management strategies, but the threat remains significant. We hypothesize that New York grape growers, informed by the economic impacts faced by Pennsylvania growers, will adopt a risk-averse approach and will be better prepared to combat spotted lanternfly. This manuscript examines spotted lanternfly biology, life stages, and host plants while estimating potential economic impacts to inform growers, stakeholders, and policymakers about the potential economic losses in New York grape production. If left uncontrolled or if growers are uninformed and unprepared, economic losses in the Lake Erie and Finger Lakes regions could escalate significantly, reaching up to $1.5, $4, and $8.8 million in the first, second, and third years of infestation, respectively. These figures underscore the critical importance of proactive management and preparedness measures to mitigate the impact of spotted lanternfly infestations on agricultural economies. We also discuss the implication of these findings in management and regulatory efforts. Future research should focus on establishing the appropriate economic thresholds and conducting cost-benefit analyses of various pest control measures in grape production in New York.