Modeling non-stationary 1-hour extreme rainfall for Indian river basins under changing climate

被引:2
作者
Vinod, Degavath [1 ]
Mahesha, Amai [1 ]
机构
[1] Natl Inst Technol Karnataka, Dept Water Resources & Ocean Engn, Mangaluru 575025, India
关键词
Climate change; Extreme rainfall; Geography; Global processes; Max-stable processes; NON-STATIONARITY; FREQUENCY; PRECIPITATION; INTENSITY; DURATION;
D O I
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132669
中图分类号
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号
0813 ;
摘要
India's complex topography and the increasing influence of climate change have exacerbated the challenges of modeling 1-hour non-stationary extreme rainfall events. Prior studies have indicated rising intensities of such events, particularly in coastal and urban areas. This study addresses these issues by developing 155 basin-specific non-stationary surface response models, incorporating geographical, climatic, and temporal covariates. Using 13 Max-Stable Process (MSP) characterizations, extreme rainfall variability across 11 major river basins and threetime scales were effectively modeled. The Brown-Resnick, Geometric-Gaussian, and Extremal-t models demonstrated varying effectiveness across regions. The findings emphasize the critical role of region-specific analysis in water resource management and disaster preparedness, where the high temporal resolution datasets are limited for the point process-based models. The global processes and regional climate change are found to predominantly influence 1-hour extreme rainfall across the majority of river basins in India.
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页数:17
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