Rising temperatures may increase fungal epizootics in northern populations of the invasive spongy moth in North America

Insect pest species are generally expected to become more destructive with climate change because of factors such as weakened host tree defences during droughts and increased voltinism under rising temperatures; however, responses will vary by species due to a variety of factors, including altered interactions with their natural enemies. Entomopathogens are a substantial source of mortality in insects, but the likelihood of epizootics can depend strongly on climatic conditions. Previous research indicates that rates of infection of the spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar) ) by its host-specific fungal pathogen, Entomophaga maimaiga, , increase with environmental moisture and decrease as temperatures rise. High temperatures may have direct and indirect (due to the associated drying) effects on the fungus, but the interactive effects between temperature and moisture level on larval infection are unclear. Here, we test the hypothesis that warmer, drier conditions will decrease rates of infection of spongy moth larvae by E. maimaiga. . We evaluated the effects of precipitation and temperature on larval mortality caused by E. maimaiga with a manipulative field experiment, conducted in one of the northernmost and coldest parts of the spongy moth's non-native range in North America. We caged laboratory-reared spongy moth larvae in experimentally warmed open-air forest plots, exposing the larvae to soil inoculated with E. maimaiga resting spores during two consecutive trials. Caged larvae were exposed to three temperature treatments - ambient, 1.7 degrees C above ambient and 3.4 degrees C above ambient - and either supplemental precipitation (+173 mm per trial) or ambient precipitation. Opposite to our hypothesis, there was no significant effect of supplemental precipitation, nor an interaction between precipitation and temperature. There was, however, a significant positive effect of increasing temperature on the number of larvae infected. On average, in each respective trial, larval infection increased by 44% and 50% under the elevated temperature treatments compared to ambient temperature. Experimental warming may have increased infections because ambient temperatures at the field site were suboptimal for fungal germination. The results from this experiment suggest that, in colder portions of the spongy moth's invasive range, increasing temperatures due to climate change may enhance the ability of E. maimaiga to help control populations of the spongy moth.