Using simulation for long-term bed modelling in critical care

A simulation model of the University Hospital of Wales (UHW) Critical Care (CC) Department is presented. This is the first CC model that considers the impact of future demand on capacity, supporting planning decisions to build a new hospital. A combination of long-term demand trajectories and Discrete Event Simulation (DES) are used. The results suggest the unit will need at least 66 Intensive Care beds and 19 Post-Anaesthesia Care beds to fulfil predicted demand in 2040 while being at capacity less than 5% of the time. Non-critical care ward beds impact patient flow in CC, thus must be considered when planning a new hospital. This study's findings directly impact on decision making at UHW, having informed capacity planning of the planned unit. This paper contributes by presenting an infrastructure planning project using simulation as a decision-making tool, with transferable insights applicable to the planning of other CC units.