Fleet-Level Impacts of Commercial Supersonic Aircraft Concepts on a Worldwide Route Network

Few studies exist that holistically assess the fleet-level environmental impact of introducing future commercial supersonic passenger aircraft into airline fleets. The Fleet-Level Environmental Evaluation Tool (FLEET) was previously expanded to predict future supersonic-eligible routes, supersonic aircraft operations, and their impact on subsonic operations, considering only a US-touching route network. To expand the study of potential supersonic routes worldwide and to model worldwide airline operations, this paper presents research results with updated global passenger demand data from the Official Airway Guide, which increases the size of the route network represented in FLEET by nearly 270% relative to the previous US-touching network. This paper also presents estimated fleet-wide projections of CO2 emissions for supersonic aircraft models with 55-, 75-, and 100-passenger capacities with over-water cruise speeds between Mach 1.6 and 2.2. The study estimates future operations (routes and number of flights) of supersonic aircraft and fleet-level emissions in 2050 by considering a mix of supersonic and subsonic aircraft. Results highlight the need to address not only the feasibility of commercial supersonic aircraft but also the associated environmental emissions and their impact on global carbon emission reduction goals, even when sustainable aviation fuels are used.