EFFECTS OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ON INFLATION

被引：0

作者：

Moessner, Richhild ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] Heidelberg Univ, ITP, Heidelberg, Germany

[2] CESifo, Munich, Germany

[3] Natl Inst Econ & Social Res, London, England

[4] Bank Int Settlements, Basel, Switzerland

来源：

NATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2025年

关键词：

inflation; inflation expectations; Phillips curve; E52; E58; FORECASTS; DYNAMICS;

D O I：

10.1017/nie.2024.24

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We study the effects of professionals' survey-based inflation expectations on inflation for a large number of 36 economies, using dynamic cross-country panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves. We find that inflation expectations have a significantly positive effect on inflation. We also find that the effect of inflation expectations on inflation is significantly larger when inflation is higher. This suggests that second-round effects via the effects of higher inflation expectations on inflation are more relevant in a high-inflation environment.

引用

页数：9

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