The effect of COVID-19 on older pedestrian road safety: A holistic analysis through pandemic phases

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic drastically altered daily life, impacting mobility and road safety. Older pedestrians (above 65) are especially vulnerable to vehicle collisions due to physical and cognitive characteristics. While the immediate effects on traffic are well-documented, the medium- and long-term impacts on older pedestrians' road safety are still unclear. This study aims to provide a holistic analysis of the pandemic's influence on older pedestrian traffic safety in urban areas. Methods: In the first stage, Poisson regression models were used to analyze urban pedestrian crash frequency in Spain, considering pedestrian age (older and non-older) and injury severity (total, fatal, serious, slight). In the second stage, two binary logistic regression models (for older and non-older pedestrians) classified injured pedestrians into pre- and post-pandemic periods in Madrid, examining changes in crash-related factors. Results: During the lockdown, crashes for both older and non-older pedestrians declined across all injury levels. In the subsequent phase of the pandemic, 'new normality', crash numbers stayed below pre-pandemic levels, except for fatalities among non-older pedestrians. Post-vaccination, total and slightly injured older and non-older pedestrians stayed reduced, and this reduction was double for older than for non-older pedestrians. The injury severity rates among pedestrians were not linked to pandemic phases. Older pedestrian crashes in the post-pandemic period shifted towards locations with more bike lanes and occurred less frequently during evening and night hours. Conclusions: The pandemic significantly impacted older pedestrian safety, with crash reductions lasting beyond the lockdown. Slight modifications in crash-related factors suggest potential shifts in older adults' mobility patterns. However, the profile of older pedestrian crashes remains largely unchanged, indicating that current safety measures are still effective. Further research is needed to assess the long-term effects on walking behavior of older adults induced by the pandemic, as older pedestrians remain a vulnerable group in road safety.