A Simple Nomogram to Predict Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer at MRI-Guided Biopsy in Patients with Mild PSA Elevation and Normal DRE

Background: Evidence to help avoid unnecessary prostate biopsies is being actively pursued. Our goal was to develop and internally validate a nomogram for predicting clinically significant prostate cancer (csPC) in men with low suspicion of disease (prostate specific antigen [PSA] < 10 ng/mL, normal digital rectal examination [DRE]), in whom magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings are positive. Methods: Patients with no prior prostate cancer diagnosis who underwent MRI-ultrasound fusion biopsy of the prostate were retrospectively analyzed. Inclusion criteria were PSA < 10 ng/mL, normal DRE, Prostate Imaging Reporting And Data System (PIRADS) category >= 3, and no extraprostatic extension or seminal vesicle invasion reported on MRI. Associations between csPC diagnosis and patient or lesion characteristics were analyzed, and a multivariable model was developed. Internal validation of the model with 5-fold cross-validation and bootstrapping methods was performed. Results: Among 209 patients, 67 were diagnosed with csPC. Factors incorporated into the model for predicting csPC were age, 5-alpha reductase inhibitor use, PSA, prostate volume, PIRADS > 3, and lesion location in the peripheral zone. The model's ROC AUC was 0.86, with consistent performance at internal validation (0.84 with cross-validation, 0.82 with bootstrapping). With an empirical threshold of <10% csPC probability to omit biopsy, 72 (50.7%) unnecessary biopsies would have been avoided, at the cost of missing 2 (3.0%) csPC cases. Conclusions: Our nomogram might serve as a valuable tool in refining selection criteria in men considered for prostate biopsy. The major limitation of the study is its retrospective character. Prospective, external validation of the model is warranted.