Hydrogen powered heavy-duty trucks may contribute CO2 emission increase instead of reduction under current hydrogen production structure in China

The effect of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks (HHDTs) on traffic decarbonization throughout the life cycle has barely been investigated, particularly in the China context. Neither current hydrogen production structure and potential innovations, nor the HHDT manufacturing processes have been considered in any studies. Therefore, we initiated a novel life cycle assessment (LCA) on the energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of HHDTs concerning the actual hydrogen production in China, and then we evaluated the effect of policy impact on emission of heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) under policy-dependent scenarios with a more comprehensive range of factors, such as the structure integrity of future HDTs, that few have included. Results show that the life cycle GHG emissions of HHDTs under current hydrogen production technology and supply chain system are 44.0 % and 27.0 % higher than that of diesel-powered heavy-duty trucks (DHDTs) and battery electric heavy-duty trucks (BHDTs), while energy consumptions are 34.9 % and 36.5 % higher, respectively. However, the results indicate that carbon emission decline rate of HHDTs over their 2020 emissions become more favorable with that of BHDTs and DHDTs, under both future scenarios of 2030, 2040 and 2050. This study can provide a scientific basis for intensifying GHG emission reduction in HDTs.