Disease trajectories before dementia: evidence from a large-scale community-based prospective study

Background Systemic changes in multiple diseases may influence the onset of dementia. However, the specific temporality between exposure diseases and dementia remains uncertain. Aims By characterising the full spectrum of temporal disease trajectories before dementia, this study aims to yield a global picture of precursor diseases to dementia and to provide detailed instructions for risk management and primary prevention of dementia. Method Using the multicentre, community-based prospective UK Biobank, we constructed disease trajectories before dementia utilising the phenome-wide association analysis, paired directional test and association quantification. Stratified disease trajectories were constructed by dementia subtypes, gender, age of diagnosis and Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) status, respectively. Results Our study population comprised 434 266 participants without baseline dementia and 4638 individuals with all-cause dementia. In total, 1253 diseases were extracted as potential components of the disease trajectory before dementia. We identified three clusters of disease trajectories preceding all-cause dementia, initiated by circulatory, metabolic and respiratory diseases occurring approximately 5-15 years before dementia. Cerebral infarction or chronic renal failure following chronic ischaemic heart disease was the specific trajectory before vascular dementia. Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) epsilon 4 non-carriers exhibited more complex trajectories compared with carriers. Lipid metabolism disorders remained in the trajectories regardless of dementia subtypes, gender, age of diagnosis and ApoE status. Conclusions This study provides a comprehensive view of the longitudinal disease trajectories before dementia and highlights the potential targets of midlife cardiometabolic dysfunction for dementia screening and prevention.