Knowledge for change or more of the same? The role of policy knowledge systems in the Nationally Determined Contributions of Ghana, Kenya and South Africa

The sum of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) continue to be inadequate for achieving the global climate goals articulated in the Paris Agreement, despite their five-yearly updates. The role of knowledge in formulating and implementing NDCs is critical for identifying how individual Parties can improve their NDCs. This paper applies a policy knowledge systems perspective, to analyse the evolution of the knowledge systems responsible for formulating the 2015 intended NDCs (iNDCs) and the 2021 NDC Updates, in Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. The analysis showed in varying degrees that: i) improving design and access to NDC processes increased credibility, legitimacy and relevance of their outcomes; ii) knowledge bases for the Updates improved upon the knowledge bases of the iNDCs, thereby delivering more robust and ambitious targets, with local universities playing key roles; iii) local representation, transparency, inclusivity and communication were critical factors to strengthen the knowledge bases. Where a knowledge base was strong and well communicated, ideological differences could be bridged and consensus built, while less developed parts of a knowledge base were more contested; iv) inclusivity and transparency in the processes were critical to balance access and representation of actors; v) the NDC processes connected national and international climate processes, exerting pressure on one another. Finally, the evolution of the NDCs has demonstrated their impact as agenda-setting policy instruments but they have demonstrated less evidence of impact in terms of implementation. In sum, designing and conducting robust processes, developing strong knowledge systems, and inclusive actor participation, drove change towards stronger NDC formulation processes and outcomes. At the same time change was resisted, evident in the legacies and lock-ins of these processes.