Examining the Impact of Electric Bike-Sharing on For-Hire Vehicles in Medium-Sized Cities: An Empirical Study in Yancheng, China

Enabled by recent technological advances and the substantial growth of the sharing economy, electric bike-sharing (EBS) has experienced rapid growth in medium-sized Chinese cities, yet its impact on for-hire vehicle (FHV) services remains insufficiently studied. Using a six-month longitudinal dataset from Yancheng, a representative medium-sized city in China, we employ an instrumental variable method to address potential endogeneity and provide quantitative empirical analysis. The analysis identifies a significant substitution effect, where a 1% increase in EBS trips corresponds to a 0.810% decline in FHV ridership. Through heterogeneity analyses, this study reveals that the substitutive effect of EBS is stronger in central downtown, which has denser infrastructure, while its impact diminishes in peripheral districts. Furthermore, unfavorable weather conditions mitigate the substitutive effect, as users increasingly rely on FHVs for their reliability and comfort during unfavorable conditions. The findings of this study highlight the necessity of integrating EBS into the electrified shared mobility ecosystem in a balanced manner to prevent disruptions to the existing transportation network and provide valuable guidance for sustainable and stable transportation planning in medium-sized cities and similar urban contexts.