A novel physics-guided spatial-temporal data mining method with external and internal causal attention for drilling risk evaluation

As drilling technology advances and operations extend into more complex geological environments, evaluating drilling risks has become increasingly complex, challenging the effectiveness of traditional methods. The novel physics-guided spatial-temporal data mining method that integrates external and internal causal attention mechanisms for drilling risk evaluation is proposed to address this issue. Firstly, a risk calibration method based on spatial-temporal sequence clustering is designed. This method dynamically calibrates drilling risks by mining subtle changes in sign data during drilling. Secondly, an expert experience extraction method based on the correlation of drilling risk signs and a fuzzy inference system is established. Kendall's tau is used to quantify the correlation between drilling risk signs. The fuzzy inference system is employed to convert fuzzy and difficult-toquantify expert experience into computable and interpretable rules. In order to improve the flexibility and adaptability of the fuzzy inference system, an expert experience rules base is also constructed. Subsequently, a spatial-temporal data mining model integrating both external and internal causal attention mechanisms (STMIEICAM) is constructed. The external causal attention mechanism (ECAM) quantified the correlation between signs and risk. The internal causal attention mechanism (ICAM) improved the model's ability to capture and quantify the features of spatial-temporal sequences. Finally, the physical knowledge from the fuzzy inference system and well-site is embedded into the STMIEICAM model, forming a physics-guided spatial-temporal data mining model integrating both external and internal causal attention mechanisms (PG-STMIEICAM) that enables graded evaluation of drilling risks. The proposed method was applied to overflow risk evaluation in an oil field to validate its effectiveness. The results demonstrate that the method not only excels in uncovering hidden relationships within the data but also integrates expert knowledge, achieving accurate evaluation of drilling risks.