Development of 3D probabilistic satisfaction surface diagram for evaluation of concrete carbonation considering climate change effect

As atmospheric CO2 concentration increases, humanity is confronted with a problem that it has never previously experienced-climate change. The rapid rise in temperature is affecting all living things on Earth. In particular, the climate change-induced increase in atmospheric temperature and relative humidity (RH) has impacted all industries worldwide. In the construction industry, the changes in temperature and RH alter curing conditions, directly affecting concrete quality. The degradation of concrete properties, such as strength and durability, has resulted in construction projects with numerous flaws. To overcome this climate change-induced degradation, the Bayesian probabilistic statistical method is proposed for concrete material evaluation and design. To verify the proposed method, the variation in concrete carbonation penetration rate due to the effect of climate change on temperature and RH was evaluated. More specifically, the Bayesian probabilistic evaluation statistical method was used to predict future carbonation penetration rates in concrete. For this purpose, three-dimensional satisfaction surface graphs were developed from related data. The x, y, and z axes of each graph correspond to parametric values: rate (0-1; 0, not satisfied; 1, fully satisfied), time, and satisfaction, respectively. The current atmospheric CO2 concentration and future environmental CO2 concentration (when net-zero carbon emission is achieved by 2050) are then applied determine the corresponding carbonation. in the structure. The results of this study show that concrete carbonation penetration rate increases with atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and RH. Details are discussed in this paper.