Analyzing the effectiveness of China's national protected areas at resisting cropland expansion pressure

Protected areas (PAs) are increasingly acknowledged as crucial tools for preserving biodiversity. Recent studies have highlighted the challenges faced by global PAs due to cropland expansion, however, the effectiveness of China's national protected areas (NPAs) has received little attention. Therefore, utilizing high-resolution cropland data (30 m) and counterfactual matching methods, this research assessed NPAs performance at resisting cropland expansion pressure from 2000 to 2019 and explored the impact of this performance on the extinction risk of endangered species, as well as the factors associated with NPAs' effectiveness. Results showed that while NPAs have somewhat alleviated pressures from cropland expansion, they have not completely eliminated the issue. The cropland area within China's NPAs increased from 1.93 million hectares in 2000 to 2.34 million hectares in 2019, highlighting a concerning trend that poses a significant threat to species diversity. Furthermore, our analysis indicated total food output was the most significant factor correlating with cropland expansion within China's NPAs, surpassing GDP and population. These findings emphasize the need to address agricultural pressures within PAs to safeguard the long-term sustainability of biodiversity conservation efforts.