Prognostic factors of pain, disability, and poor outcomes in persons with neck pain - an umbrella review

Objective The aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors pertaining to neck pain from systematic reviews.Data sources A search on PubMed, Scopus, and CINAHL was performed on June 27, 2024. Additional grey literature searches were performed.Review methods We conducted an umbrella review and included systematic reviews reporting the prognostic factors associated with non-specific or trauma-related neck pain and cervical radiculopathy. Prognostic factors were sorted according to the outcome predicted, the direction of the predicted outcome (worse, better, inconsistent), and the grade of evidence (Oxford Center of Evidence). The predicted outcomes were regrouped into five categories: pain, disability, work-related outcomes, quality of life, and poor outcomes (as "recovery"). Risk of bias analysis was performed with the ROBIS tool.Results We retrieved 884 citations from three databases, read 39 full texts, and included 16 studies that met all selection criteria. From these studies, we extracted 44 prognostic factors restricted to non-specific neck pain, 47 for trauma-related neck pain, and one for cervical radiculopathy. We observed that among the prognostic factors, most were associated with characteristics of the condition, cognitive-emotional factors, or socio-environmental and lifestyle factors.Conclusion This study identified over 40 prognostic factors associated mainly with non-specific neck pain or trauma-related neck pain. We found that a majority were associated with worse outcomes and pertained to domains mainly involving cognitive-emotional factors, socio-environmental and lifestyle factors, and the characteristics of the condition to predict outcomes and potentially guide clinicians to tailor their interventions for people living with neck pain.