Magnitude Prediction of Solar Cycle 26 Using a New Precursor Approach

A long-term prediction approach for solar cycles is proposed by including the century-scale modulation in the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) and XSODA (Extended Solar Dynamo Amplitude) indices of Schatten and Pesnell, MSODA and MXSODA. Additionally, we also introduce a new technique, the minimal fluctuation method, to reduce temporal fluctuations. By combining this method with MSODA, we predict that Solar Cycle 26 will reach a maximum sunspot number of 109.14 +/- 32.92\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$109.14\pm 32.92$\end{document} in the year 2035.3 +/- 2.3\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$2035.3 \pm 2.3$\end{document}. Using MXSODA, the most reliable indicator, the peak is expected to reach a maximum amplitude of 160.70 +/- 47.83\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$160.70\pm 47.83$\end{document} on the same date.