Role of tumor-specific and whole-body imaging biomarkers for prediction of recurrence in patients with stage III colorectal cancer

Background Imaging biomarkers are emerging as non-invasive predictors of cancer prognosis and clinical outcome. We assessed tumor-specific ("radiomics") and body composition imaging features ("morphomics") extracted from baseline pre-treatment CT for prediction of recurrence in patients with stage III colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods Patients with newly diagnosed stage III CRC were enrolled in this prospective observational study. Patients with available preoperative scans were included (N = 101). The tumor, if visible, was manually segmented and first-order radiomics features were extracted with a commercially available software. The morphomics features (reflecting muscle, fat, and bone characteristics) were extracted in a standardized fashion using a proprietary software and the values were adjusted and normalized based on a reference standard. Time to recurrence was the final outcome. Correlation between demographics, clinical features, radiomics, and morphomics features and outcome were assessed using univariate and multivariate tests as well as Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Results Morphomic analysis was performed in all 101 patients. 60 patients had discrete tumors suitable for radiomics analysis. These patients had lower ECOG score (p < 0.05), more muscle mass (p > 0.05), and lower fat density (p > 0.05) compared to the patients in whom radiomics analysis could not be performed. Pathological stage (HR: 2.69; p = 0.03), CEA level after surgery (HR: 1.11 for 1 ng/mL; p < 0.005), bone mineral density (HR: 1.01 for 1 Hounsfield Unit; p < 0.01), and tumor skewness (HR: 0.33 for 1 unit; p < 0.05) had association with recurrence based on both univariate and multivariate analyses. A model using Cox's regression analyses was able to divide the patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk for recurrence. Conclusions Both radiomics and morphomics features were independently associated with the risk of CRC recurrence and, when combined, each contributed valuable information to explain risk of recurrence. Trial registration Clinical trial.gov NCT02842203. Patient recruitment occurred between 22/07/2016 and 18/03/2020.