Predicting the potential distribution of three invasive insect pests (Tuta absoluta, Aleurodicus rugioperculatus and Phenacoccus manihoti) under future climate scenarios in India based on CMIP6 projections

Invasive insect species are a crucial threat to native crop species with severe ecological and socioeconomic impacts. The ability to effectively estimate the potential geographic pests in new regions is essential for determining the risk of invasion on their arrival. Climate change and climate variability are projected to alter the potential distributional pattern of invasive pests, posing significant threats to the agricultural production system. The present study offers the distributional risk of three invasive insect species, viz., Tuta absoluta, Aleurodicus rugioperculatus and Phenacoccus manihoti of India, utilizing a species niche and distribution modelling approach. These invasive pests are polyphagous in nature and attack many important crops and particularly pose a severe threat to tomatoes, coconut and cassava. Current occurrence points with corresponding bioclimatic variables were integrated for species niche and distribution modelling to annotate the possible distribution in MaxEnt software, and outputs were mapped using ArcGIS spatial analysis tool. The applied models effectively predicted the potential distribution of T. absoluta, A. rugioperculatus and P. manihoti, as evidenced by their respective area under curve values of 0.83, 0.98, and 0.99, respectively. The training algorithms applied for jackknife tests revealed that precipitation of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and mean temperature were the most significant limiting factors, which explained 52.2 to 66.7% variations. The predicted maps showed that Southern and Western parts of India were climatically suitable for all three invasive insect pest species. The results of this study could function as a foundational database for three significant invasive pests in India. It can be utilized in formulating comprehensive pest management strategies to mitigate the potential spread and damage caused to staple crops, particularly under changing climate scenarios.