Modeling the effects of climate change and land use on flow rate and sedimentation by SWAT model in Anzali Wetland in the north of IranModeling the effects of climate change and land use on flow rate and sedimentation by SWAT model in Anzali Wetland in the north of IranRashedi et al.

被引：0

作者：

Saied Rashedi ^{[1
]}

Seyed Abbas Hisseini ^{[1
]}

Sara Nazif ^{[2
]}

Bagher Ghermez Cheshmeh ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Islamic Azad University,Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch

[2] University of Tehran,Department of Civil Engineering

[3] Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute,undefined

[4] Agricultural Research,undefined

[5] Education and Extension Organization,undefined

来源：

Theoretical and Applied Climatology | 2025年 / 156卷 / 1期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1007/s00704-024-05326-6

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Climate and land use changes within a watershed can have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle and subsequently affect the water resources of the watershed. This research aims to examine the influence of climate change and land use change on the flow rate and sedimentation of the Pasikhan watershed. The Pasikhan River watershed is located in northern Iran and represents the main river that flows into the Anzali Wetland. Using the semi-distributed SWAT model, hydrological processes of the watershed, including river discharge and sediment production, were simulated for the years 1999, 2007, 2020, 2040 and 2071. The simulation results were subsequently input into the SWAT-CUP software for calibration. After recalibration to assess model accuracy, validation was conducted for each time period. Downscaling precipitation and temperature data for the future period were calculated using GCM models under two scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The simulation results show acceptable performance, with the pessimistic scenario occasionally leading to higher river flow than the scenario optimistic, and maximum flows reaching 24 m3 s−1 in 2033 and 23 m3 s−1 in 2069. The modeling outcomes showed that the trend of changes in discharge and sedimentation in the upcoming years is unpredictable, with the highest values of flow and sedimentation occurring in 2033, while the lowest values were observed in 2026. The evaluation of the calibration and validation periods resulted in NS and R2 coefficients of 0.6, 0.61, 0.8 and 0.8, respectively. These findings project a 66% increase in sedimentation within the watershed by 2070 compared to 2020, which poses significant environmental threats to the Anzali Wetland. Additionally, the flow and sediment discharge modeling outcomes in the Pasikhan watershed demonstrate the competence of the SWAT model in this simulation. Consequently, researchers and managers can utilize this model to make informed decisions by implementing various management scenarios in a cost-effective and timely manner.

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