Multi-temporal trend analysis for climate means and extremes in Vietnam's Mekong Delta

被引：0
作者：
Phuong, D. N. Dong [1 ]
Trinh-Tuan, L. [2 ]
Nguyen, V. T. [1 ]
Loi, N. Kim [3 ]
机构：
[1] Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seoul 151742, South Korea
[2] Vietnam Acad Water Resources, Hanoi 116830, Vietnam
[3] Nong Lam Univ, Res Ctr Climate Change, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam
来源：
CLIMATE DYNAMICS | 2025年 / 63卷 / 02期
基金：
新加坡国家研究基金会;
关键词：
Climate extremes; Multi-temporal trend; Statistical trend tests; Temporal trend patterns; Vietnam's Mekong Delta; ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE; CHANGE IMPACTS; RIVER-DELTA; RAINFALL; REGION;
D O I：
10.1007/s00382-025-07611-0
中图分类号：
P4 [大气科学（气象学）];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
To gain a deeper understanding of the historical changes in climate means and extremes over recent decades in Vietnam's Mekong Delta (VMD), this study employed a multi-temporal trend analysis methodology. Non-parametric statistical trend tests, including Sen's slope estimator, as well as classical and modified Mann-Kendall tests were applied to all possible periods with varying beginning and ending times. The outcomes consistently indicate progressive warming trends, with detectable trends at 30-year scales or more estimated to be around 0.04-0.49 degrees C per decade. Regarding rainfall trends, the outcomes reveal much less coherent patterns across stations and periods analyzed. Trends estimated for long-term periods (record length of 30 years or more) were mainly weak and statistically insignificant, ranging from approximately 0.2-6.9% per decade for stations characterized by increasing trends in annual rainfall and from approximately - 0.1% to -4.5% per decade for those exhibiting declining trends. Meanwhile, time-varying trends at shorter-term time scales appeared to be more mixed with higher magnitudes, and also exhibited alternating increasing and decreasing trend behaviors or even a reversal of the dipole-like pattern. These findings highlight the sensitivity of time-varying trend patterns to the considered periods in terms of trend direction, magnitude, and statistical significance. This study also addressed potential relationships between El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and interannual variability of rainfall anomalies based on correlation analysis. The outcomes reveal significant linkages between ENSO and rainfall variations in the VMD. Overall, this study provides more illuminating insights into the trend possibilities of climate means and extremes in the VMD.
引用
收藏
页数：26
相关论文
共 90 条
  • [1] Aida M.J., Nathaniel A.C., Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines: water resources, Clim Res, 12, pp. 77-84, (1999)
  • [2] Alexander L.V., Fowler H.J., Bador M., Behrangi A., Donat M.G., Dunn R., Funk C., Goldie J., Lewis E., Roge M., Seneviratne S.I., Venugopal V., On the use of indices to study extreme precipitation on sub-daily and daily timescales, Environ Res Lett, 14, (2019)
  • [3] Anh N.-T.H., Matsumoto J., Ngo-Duc T., Endo N., A climatological study of tropical cyclone rainfall in Vietnam, SOLA, 8, pp. 41-44, (2012)
  • [4] Anthony E.J., Brunier G., Besset M., Goichot M., Dussouillez P., Nguyen V.L., Linking rapid erosion of the Mekong River delta to human activities, Sci Rep, 5, (2015)
  • [5] Beck H.E., McVicar T.R., Vergopolan N., Berg A., Lutsko N.J., Dufour A., Zeng Z., Jiang X., van Dijk A.I.J.M., Miralles D.G., High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections, Sci Data, 10, (2023)
  • [6] Brunetti M., Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., Gulla G., Nanni T., Simolo C., Precipitation variability and change in the Calabria region (Italy) from a high resolution daily dataset, Int J Climatol, 32, pp. 57-73, (2012)
  • [7] Caesar J., Alexander L.V., Trewin B., Tse-ring K., Sorany L., Vuniyayawa V., Keosavang N., Shimana A., Htay M.M., Karmacharya J., Jayasinghearachchi D.A., Sakkamart J., Soares E., Hung L.T., Thuong L.T., Hue C.T., Dung N.T.T., Hung P.V., Cuong H.D., Cuong N.M., Sirabaha S., Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Indo-Pacific region from 1971 to 2005, Int J Climatol, 31, pp. 791-801, (2011)
  • [8] Liu H., Flood prevention and drought relief in Mekong River Basin, Summary of Flood and Drought in Mekong River Basin, pp. 27-54, (2020)
  • [9] Chen T.-C., Tsay J.-D., Yen M.-C., Matsumoto J., Interannual variation of the late fall rainfall in central Vietnam, J Clim, 25, pp. 392-413, (2012)
  • [10] Dang V.H., Tran D.D., Cham D.D., Hang P.T.T., Nguyen H.T., Truong H.V., Tran P.H., Duong M.B., Nguyen N.T., Le K.V., Pham T.B.T., Nguyen A.H., Assessment of rainfall distributions and characteristics in coastal provinces of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta under climate change and ENSO processes, Water, 12, (2020)
123456789