Changes and trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years, life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy in China from 1990 to 2021: a secondary analysis of the global burden of disease 2021

被引：0
作者：
Xuelin Cheng [1 ]
Wenchang Jia [2 ]
Jing Zhou [1 ]
Yaxin Xu [3 ]
Jian Zou [1 ]
Ming Liu [1 ]
Sunfang Jiang [1 ]
Xiaopan Li [1 ]
机构：
[1] Department of Health Management Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, No. 180 Fenglin Rd., Shanghai, Xuhui
[2] Department of General Practice, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, No. 180 Fenglin Rd., Shanghai, Xuhui
[3] School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai
[4] Shanghai Engineering Research Center of AI Technology for Cardiopulmonary Diseases, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai
来源：
Archives of Public Health | / 83卷 / 1期
关键词：
Disability-adjusted life year; Healthy life expectancy; Life expectancy; Population aging;
D O I：
10.1186/s13690-025-01558-8
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Background: The aging population in China is increasingly evident, leading to a shift in the patterns of disease burden. This study aims to investigate changes and trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), life expectancy (LE), and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) in China from 1990 to 2021. Methods: This study presents a secondary analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, with a focus on mortality, DALYs, LE, and HALE. We examined changes in these indicators in China from 1990 to 2021, comparing them with global averages and across five SDI regions. Using Joinpoint Regression Software, we analyzed trends in the top ten cause-specific DALY rates in 2021. Furthermore, we employed the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model to forecast age-standardized rates (ASR) of mortality for the next decade. Results: China witnessed a decrease in the ASRs of mortality (1198.16/100,000 [1098.61–1294.10] to 644.68/100,000 [555.12–735.51]) and DALYs (43085.42/100,000 [39330.62–47273.39] to 22717.19/100,000 [19748.18–25903.34]) from 1990 to 2021. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the ASRs of mortality and DALY declined in China (23009.47/100,000 [19661.21–26495.58] in 2019), but global rates and those across the five SDI (Socio-demographic Index) regions increased. Projections indicate a continued decline in the ASRs of mortality over the next decade, from 2019 to 2035 and 2021 to 2035. Notably, DALY rates for the top 10 level 2 causes in 2021 decreased over the past three decades, except for musculoskeletal disorders (AAPC% 95%CI, 0.10 [0.07–0.14], men; 0.05 [-0.02–0.13], women) and sense organ diseases (AAPC% 95%CI, 0.38 [0.33–0.43], men; 0.35 [0.30–0.41], women). LE and HALE increased across all age groups in China over the same period, although there was no significant change in the HALE/LE ratio. Conclusion: Effective policy implementation and technological advancements could play a crucial role in alleviating disease burdens associated with aging in China, thereby reducing the country's all-cause mortality rate and enhancing the quality of life for its residents. © The Author(s) 2025.
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