Examining Complex Impacts of E-shopping and Built Environment Factors on Shopping VMT

The pandemic increased the prevalence of online shopping, prompting greater interest in its post- pandemic impacts. While current research often examines how online shopping replaces shopping trips, it rarely directly addresses its impact on vehicle miles traveled (VMT). This study explores how online shopping frequency affects VMT for shopping trips using data from fall 2023. By employing a Light Gradient Boosting model we predict shopping VMT and identify key factors influencing it using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Our analysis distinguishes between the impacts of online shopping for food and non-food items. The findings elucidate the impacts of online shopping and other key determinants on post-pandemic shopping VMT. These insights will inform planning and policy efforts to manage the environmental impacts of online shopping, balancing reduced passenger VMT with potential delivery VMT increases. This research lays the foundation for future studies on transportation sustainability, aiding policymakers in creating sustainable systems.