Impact and zoning of production-living-ecological spaces changes on carbon balance: Evidence from Shandong province, China

Changes in production-living-ecological spaces (PLES) profoundly affect the global carbon cycle, further challenging socio-ecological system sustainability. However, the impacts of PLES changes on carbon balance have been insufficiently discussed under a spatial heterogeneity perspective, resulting in an inadequate understanding of green development. This paper quantified the dynamics of PLES using the transfer matrix method and assessed the carbon balance computed by the ecological support coefficient of carbon emissions (ESC) in Shandong province from 2000 to 2020. The impacts of PLES changes on ESC were further investigated using a geographically weighted regression model. On this basis, carbon balance zones were delineated through cluster analysis. The results indicated that both production and ecological spaces decreased while the living space increased during 2000-2020. Carbon emissions increased and its sequestration decreased. As a result, ESC initially increased and then decreased, exhibiting apparent spatial clustering. The impact of different PLES transfer changes on ESC varies across county sites, with production -> living space having the most significant impact on regional ESC and ecology -> living space having the most negligible impact. Finally, six types of carbon balance zones were established to reduce carbon emissions. The findings are expected to support policy implementations for reducing carbon emissions and optimizing territorial development through low-carbon land use.