Gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality rate trends in China: analysis of data from the population-based cancer registry

Background Gallbladder cancer is a major health concern in China, and awareness of the associated incidence and mortality rates is particularly important given the aging population. Objective To determine trends in gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality rates over 12 years and quantitatively analyze the influence of demographic factors on these rates in China. Methods We performed a retrospective study of 98,860 Chinese citizens using the Chinese Cancer Registry, a national database. Gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality data pertaining to patients treated between 2005 and 2017 were collected. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC). We used age-period-cohort analyses and decomposition methods to investigate differing trends in incidence and mortality. Results The age-standardized gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality rates in China trended downward between 2005 and 2017, with AAPCs of -2.023% and -1.603%, respectively. Coefficients of age effect for incidence rate increased with age up to 70 years and peaked at 70-79 years, while coefficients of age effect for the mortality rate showed a consistent increase with age. Both coefficients of period for incidence and mortality rates increased in more recent periods; in terms of the cohort effect, coefficients of cohort for rates generally decreased in later birth years but showed a partial rise between 1982 and 1996. The crude incidence rates of gallbladder cancer according to demographic and non-demographic factors were 626.09% and -526.09% respectively (366.23% and -266.23% among men, and 6068.93% and -5968.93% among women, respectively). The rates were 543.01% and -443.01%, respectively, in urban areas and were 68.22% and 31.78%, respectively, in rural areas. The mortality rates according to demographic and non-demographic factors were -495.93% and 595.93%, respectively (-1763.10% and -1863.10% for men and -270.56% and -370.56% for women, respectively). These rates were -930.33% and 1030.33%, respectively, in urban areas and were 101.48% and -1.48%, respectively, in rural areas. Conclusions The overall standardized gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality rates in China are trending downward, but not sufficiently so. Proper living and eating habits should be encouraged while exploring the establishment of long-term, standardized gallbladder cancer screening programs.