Spatiotemporal analysis of weather-related fire danger associated with climate change in the Zagros Mountains, Iran

This study uses the Fire Weather Index (FWI) from the Canadian Wildfire Hazard Rating System (CFFDRS) to assess the danger of future wildfires in the Zagros Mountains under climate change. We use CanESM5 model data for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios to estimate FWI changes in the past (1960-2020), near future (2031 - 2017), and distant future (2061-2090). Statistical analysis at the 95% confidence level verifies significant differences in FWI values, especially in the Northwest. We explore spatial and temporal trends using Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA). The results show that cold spots are decreasing, and warm spots are increasing over time. The results of this study highlight the continuing dangers of wildfires in the region. The study underscores the significance of implementing preventive fire management strategies that consider the dynamic nature of weather patterns.