Investigation of the Predictability of the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Variability in the INMCM5 Seasonal Predictions

Using the ensemble of 20 seasonal predictions calculated by the INM RAS climate model (INMCM5), the simulation of the stratospheric polar vortex variability in the Arctic from 1991 to 2023 is studied. The best predicted monthly mean speeds of zonal mean wind at the level of 10 hPa (similar to 30 km) and at 60 degrees N as compared with the ERA5 reanalysis data with differ ences to 5 m/s were revealed in the winter seasons with the strong stable stratospheric polar vortex in 2010/2011 and 2019/2020 and, consequently, with the greatest depletion of the ozone layer. A statistically significant correlation was found between predicted monthly mean speeds of zonal mean wind and the reanalysis data for the first month after the start.