China's transition to a low-carbon economy and climate resilience: The impact of sustainable modernization indicators

While sustainability is widely recognized as a necessary path for development and climate change mitigation, there is no consensus on this concept's goals and future aspirations. Advocates of a green economy believe that economic growth is a prerequisite for long-term progress and the modernization of society. This entails gradually transitioning to a more sustainable economy and addressing carbon emissions. Therefore, there is a need for the scientific community to investigate how different forms of modernization affect carbon emissions. This study examines the impact of modernization on carbon emissions in China, the world's largest developing economy, focusing on five indicators of sustainable modernization: ecological modernization, agricultural modernization, digitalization, industrialization, and urbanization. The study analyzes data from 31 Chinese provincial-level regions between 2005 and 2020, using the GeoDetector technique to explore the effects of these indicators on carbon emissions. The spatial analysis reveals a distinct "core-periphery" structure of carbon emissions. The findings demonstrate that ecological modernization and digitalization contribute to reducing emissions. On the other hand, industrialization and urbanization have a positive influence on carbon emissions. Interestingly, agricultural modernization initially increases carbon emissions in the short term but has a diminishing effect in the long term.