Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative fever after endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal lesions

Fever is a complication after colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). The objective of this study was to explore the incidence and risk factors of fever after colorectal ESD and establish a predictive nomogram model. This retrospective analysis encompassed patients with colorectal lesions who underwent ESD between June 2008 and December 2021 in our center. Multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors of fever after colorectal ESD based on univariate analysis, and derived predictive nomogram model was constructed. The performance of nomogram model was evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC). Among the 1096 enrolled patients with colorectal lesions, fever after colorectal ESD occurred in 204 (18.6%) patients. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that tumor size (P < 0.001), ESD procedure time > 30 min (P < 0.001), injury to muscle layer (P < 0.001) and intraoperative perforation (P = 0.046) were estimated to be independent risk factors of fever after colorectal ESD. A predictive nomogram model, incorporating these four predictors, were established and performed well in both training and validation groups. Both DCA and CIC showed this nomogram model had a good potential for clinical practicability.