An interrupted time series study of the leprosy case detection in Brazil after the COVID-19 pandemic

被引:0
|
作者
Sousa, George Jo Bezerra [1 ]
Lages, Daniele dos Santos [2 ,3 ]
Barbosa, Patricia Pereira Lima [1 ,4 ]
Rocha, Margarida Cristiana Napoleao [1 ]
de Sena Neto, Sebastiao Alves [1 ]
Brandao, Jurema Guerrieri [1 ,5 ]
Lana, Francisco Carlos Felix [3 ]
Alencar, Carlos Henrique [4 ]
Pereira, Maria Lucia Duarte [6 ]
da Cruz, Alda Maria [7 ,8 ,9 ]
Gomes, Ciro Martins [1 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Minist Hlth, Dept Transmitted Dis, Gen Coordinat Surveillance Leprosy & Dis Eliminat, SRTVN Quadra 701 Lote D,PO 700, BR-70719040 Brasilia, Brazil
[2] Minas Gerais Hlth Secretary, Leprosy Coordinat, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
[3] Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Sch Nursing, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
[4] Univ Fed Ceara, Dept Publ Hlth, Fortaleza, Brazil
[5] Univ Brasilia, Dept Med, Brasilia, Brazil
[6] Univ Estadual Ceara, Fac Nursing, Fortaleza, Brazil
[7] Minist Hlth, Dept Transmitted Dis, Brasilia, Brazil
[8] Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Inst Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz, RJ, Brazil
[9] Univ Estado Rio de Janeiro, Disciplina Parasitol DMIP, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
来源
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2025年 / 15卷 / 01期
关键词
Hansen's disease; Leprosy; COVID-19; Interrupted time series analysis; Epidemiology; CHALLENGES; CRISIS; IMPACT;
D O I
10.1038/s41598-025-94600-2
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
COVID-19 pandemics affected several health systems processes, including leprosy care. This study aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the leprosy case detection rate in Brazil from 2017 to 2022. Data was retrieved from Sinan, a Brazilian notification system, and monthly leprosy detection rate in the overall population and in individuals under 15 years of age were the main outcomes. The series was interrupted in February 2020, when the COVID-19 public health emergency was declared in Brazil. The data were analysed via Prais-Winsten regression. Over the 72 months analysed, the COVID-19 pandemic led to an immediate 0.55 reduction (95% CI 0.48-0.62) in the overall leprosy detection rate, with a subsequent monthly increase of 1.01 (95% CI 1.00-1.02). For the population under 15 years of age, the pandemic caused an immediate 0.48 reduction (95% CI 0.40-0.57), followed by a monthly increase of 1.01 (95% CI 1.01-1.02) after the onset of the pandemic. Subnational analysis revealed that most federative units followed the trend for the overall detection rate, but high heterogeneity was observed regarding individuals under 15 years of age. Therefore, it is urgent to target strategies to minimize delayed diagnosis and long-term consequences of leprosy.
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页数:11
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