Comparison of Agricultural Drought Indices for Ahmednagar Region for a Period of 1990–2023

Due to recent insufficient rainfall compared to the national average, the Ahmednagar area of Maharashtra state has been in the news whenever India has experienced a dry season. Ahmednagar is one of the areas with the highest risk of drought. Dry spells can be weather-related, agricultural, or hydrological in origin. Surveying and monitoring dry spell conditions is critical for effectively planning and implementing mitigation activities since they pose a significant risk to crop yield and food security. Thus, the present research emphasizes agricultural dry spell indicators for the Ahmednagar region of Maharashtra, India, evaluated from 1990 to 2023. To accurately depict the agricultural dry season in Ahmednagar, historical data is considered to learn more about the accuracy and sufficiency of different dry spell indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Dry season Earnestness Index (PDSI), and Self Calibrating Palmer Drought Precipitation Index (scPDSI). In the present paper, certain precipitation data collected by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) have been used as the main indicator to evaluate the severity of agricultural dry seasons. The calculated SPI is used to predict the repetition and severity of dry seasons. A statistical-based ‘theory of run’ method is applied to determine the maximum severity, agricultural dryness, and drought length. According to the Mann-Kendall trend test findings, the study’s drought conditions have worsened over time. This study can be helpful for governments, agricultural departments, policy and decision-makers. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2024.