Transmission dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease in mainland China based on metapopulation network

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral infection that primarily affects cloven-hoofed animals, posing a significant threat to animal husbandry. Given the common phenomenon of livestock transportation across provinces in mainland China, the risk of the wide spread of FMD is exacerbated. Therefore, we establish a network-based FMD dynamic model utilizing the highway infrastructure map. We prove the existence of disease-free equilibrium and its global asymptotic stability and derive the basic reproduction number R-0(M). Moreover, FMD is uniformly persistent when R-0(M)>1. Our results reveal the predominant role of FMDV transmission in determining the FMD prevalence with negligible contribution from exposed livestock. Increasing the transportation rate of susceptible livestock in the first type regions can result in FMD outbreaks, while enhancing the transportation rates of exposed and infected livestock has the opposite effect. Furthermore, we find that implementing a single measure can control FMD prevalence in the next decade. While achieving an immunization with coverage rate of 50% and qualification rate of 70% can essentially maintain "FMD-free" status, which highlights the significance of immunization for FMD control. In addition, early implementation of zoning policy can effectively decrease FMD cases. Overall, this study provides a novel modeling perspective on transmission dynamics of FMD and offers theoretical guidance for the prevention and control of animal diseases.