Serum uric acid trajectories and risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in China: a 2019-2021 cohort health survey

ObjectiveTo investigate the associations between serum uric acid (UA) trajectories and the risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in large cohort survey 2019-2021.MethodsThis cohort health survey included 11,644 participants without MASLD before January 1, 2021. Among them, 5578 (47.90%) were men and 6066 (52.10%) were women. The group-based trajectory model method was applied to identify serum UA trajectories from January 1, 2019, to December 30, 2021. New-onset MASLD events in 2021 were treated as outcomes. A logistic regression model was used to assess associations between UA trajectories and incidence of MASLD.ResultsFour distinct serum UA trajectories among both sexes were identified: "low-stable" trajectory 1 (n = 783 men; n = 1143 women), "moderate-moderate increasing" trajectory 2 (n = 2794 men; n = 3266 women), "moderate high-moderate increasing" trajectory 3 (n = 1660 men; n = 1464 women), and "high-increasing" trajectory 4 (n = 341 men; n = 193 women). During the 3-year follow-up period, 840 (15.06%) men and 408 (6.72%) women developed MASLD, respectively. Compared with the trajectory 1 group, the trajectory 4 group had the highest risk (odds ration [OR] 2.99 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.70, 5.24] for men; OR 2.37 [95% CI 1.04, 5.33] for women), followed by the trajectory 3 (OR 2.23 [95% CI 1.52, 3.30] for men; OR 2.37 [95% CI 1.45, 3.92] for women) and trajectory 2 (OR 1.43 [95% CI 1.07, 1.94] for men; OR 1.37 [95% CI 0.93, 2.03] for women) groups.ConclusionsHigh serum UA trajectories were independent risk factors for MASLD in both sexes, which is critical for informing prevention and treatment strategies in public health initiatives and clinical practice.