Projected changes in climate extremes over Tanzania

Understanding projected changes in climate extremes at local and regional scales is critical for reducing society's vulnerability to such extremes, as it helps to devise informed adaptation strategies and contributes to informed decision-making processes. In this paper, we analysed projected changes in climate extremes across regions in Tanzania using outputs of high-resolution regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX-Africa). The indices analysed here are those recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to characterise climate extremes over different regions. The results revealed that Tanzania would experience an increased number of warm days and nights during the present (2011-2040), mid (2041-2070), and end centuries under the RCP4.5 emission scenarios. Further, projections reveal that in future climate conditions, heavy, very heavy and exceptionally heavy rainfall events would dominate over regions along coast, central regions, northwestern parts and southwestern and northeastern highland.The number of consecutive wet days (CWDs) are likely to increase across large areas of Tanzania and more rapidily over coastal regions than that in other regions for all seasons. However, many regions in Tanzania are likely to experience an unchanged to decreasing number of consecutive dry days (CDDs). Areas along coastal regions would experience increased intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in the present, mid, and end centuries under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. These increases in extreme climate events are likely to pose significant damage to property, destruction of infrastructure, and other socioeconomic livelihoods for people in many regions of Tanzania. It is therefore recommended that appropriate policies are put in place to help different sectors and communities at large adapt the impacts of climate change in the future climate under RCP 4.5 scenario.